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Well. On one hand, Australia's protracted campaign to host the Cop31 next year has ended in clear failure.

It campaigned for more than three years for the privilege to put on the largest global climate summit and green trade fair, which would have brought tens of thousands of delegates to the city of Adelaide next fall.

This won't occur. Rather, the summit known as the UN climate meeting is moving to the tourist destination of Antalya, on the Mediterranean coast of Turkey.

Disappointment and Conflicting Signals

This outcome will be a major let down to many people who had hoped hosting the environmental gathering could help speed up Australia's shift from being a fossil fuel economy to a clean energy leader, and bring international focus to the survival crisis facing Pacific island nations, who would have been co-hosts.

The procedure that led to failure has been an unclear situation. Recently, there have been doubts that Anthony Albanese and other senior figures truly desired the bid to succeed. The prime minister's language sent mixed messages at best. This led to stories in the Australian and international media saying the government was withdrawing.

This differed from the communication being relayed at the Cop30 talks in the Brazilian city, where the environment minister, the climate minister, had just declared the country was "in it to win it".

Ambiguous backing is not a new issue for Australia's Cop31 bid. While Bowen championed it, other senior members of the administration have only sometimes appeared to be interested.

The Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade, usually in charge for international climate negotiations, has been uninvolved and at times outright opposed.

Evidence suggests the prime minister has considered international climate meetings a important focus. He has missed one since taking office in 2022. We'll never know, but some will wonder if more could have been done to get the bid over the line.

A Different Perspective

That's one interpretation. However, another perspective to look at it.

In the context the Cop30 talks this week in Brazil – and from an international perspective – the decision on this week may, perversely, have been the most favorable outcome available.

The minister outlined on Wednesday an unprecedented deal that he was developing with his Turkish counterpart, the Turkish minister. The Turkish government would be the conference leader, host and effective event manager, and the Australian delegation – Bowen himself – would assume a role as "president of negotiations", wrangling almost all nations on the matters that the countries actually turn up for – the talks on how to together combat the environmental emergency.

Additionally, there would be a greater focus on the Pacific region, including a lead-up event on an island nation.

Grounds for Scepticism

Multiple reasons exist for doubt. Turkey and Australia do not have a strong partnership. Specific aspects of the agreement had not been completed at the time of writing. The entire arrangement could fall over before it begins.

But it could also be a way to recover value from what appeared to be an approaching car crash for the multilateral work on global warming.

Turkey is generally viewed in the international community as having been hellbent on causing havoc in the UN climate process. The system is supposed to work by unanimous agreement. Usually, that means if there are multiple countries in the race those with less support either bow out voluntarily, or a deal is quietly done to persuade them to exit the race.

The Turkish bid plainly had weaker endorsement than Australia and Pacific islands to organize the summit. Approximately 24 of the 28 nations responsible for nominating next year's host had backed the southern pitch.

But, exceptionally, Ankara refused to yield. The term "disruption" has been used frequently in recent days, and not just by Australians.

International Dynamics

Turkey's obstinacy can be read as a manifestation of the divided international landscape. With the US absent under Donald Trump, there has been no dominant nation with the influence to stare down the oil producers that offered the Turks with certain protection.

The Turkish president is seen as aligned with the Russian leader. Some countries worried about a conference hindered from the leadership if his administration managed the negotiations. Germany did not want to have to organize an unprepared climate conference at the UN environmental office in Bonn, which is what would have occurred under international regulations if the stalemate wasn't resolved.

A Creative Solution

A path through was necessary. The UN system is imperfect and often unsettling to watch, but global cooperation has demonstrably made a difference in the battle with climate change. This joint approach is a creative idea that keeps that going when it is needed more than ever.

Notwithstanding reasonable concerns of the federal administration over its hypocritical support for expanding carbon-based exports, environmental advocates who attend UN conferences see the minister as a positive influence in the talks. He has been requested to lead discussion groups at multiple summits he has attended.

This is significant. While certain critics have downplayed the importance of a "president of negotiations", specialists from academic institutions and experienced analysts at climate talks assert it is pivotal to their success.

"Every successful Cop has been shaped by a leader holding the pen who can understand, forge agreement and deliver an ambitious outcome. We saw that in the German capital in 1995, in the Mexican resort in 2010 and Paris in 2015. The reverse happened in Copenhagen in 2009," he says. "This position is critical at the conference other than making sure that people have food."

Remaining Concerns

Multiple unanswered questions. As an illustration, civil society plays a vital role at climate conferences. What, if anything, can the federal administration do to stop a crackdown on NGO participation by the host government?

Possibly little. But that doesn't stop this deal looking like the best chance possible to have a summit that may provide benefits for the Pacific, the nation and the world. It's worth a try.