Day-to-Day Murders in Mexico Decline Over a Third In Claudia Sheinbaum, Per Government Statistics

The mean number of everyday murders per month in the country has dropped by thirty-seven percent since President Claudia Sheinbaum took office, according to recent government statistics. But, public safety specialists have cautioned that homicide data may not signal enhanced countrywide security.

Marked Drop in Per-Day Averages

There was an mean of almost 55 homicides a day in the month of November versus nearly 87 when the President took the presidential office in the previous September. This information was shared by the director of the country’s national public security system, Marcela Figueroa Franco, during the leader's regular press briefing on Tuesday.

“The result in homicides that have been recorded over these past months is remarkably notable,” the President said, adding that last month the least amount of homicides were documented for any November in the past decade.

Historical Background and Official Plan

Intense drug cartel infighting, coupled with the administration's highly military operations to combat the cartels, have made Mexico’s murder numbers escalate in recent years. The rate hit a maximum of 36,773 killings in 2020, according to the nation's national statistics office.

That gave Mexico a homicide rate more than 4x higher than that of the United States. However, murders have been on the downward trend, dropping to 33,550 in the last calendar year. The President has linked her national security plan for an seemingly more pronounced decline in killings in the current year.

At a press conference in the summer, the head of state declared: “There is a plan, there is oversight of the strategy, and we have specific tracking municipality by municipality in some cases. The plan is effective. And we have to keep working at it every day.”

The key pillars of Sheinbaum’s security plan encompass:

• Bolstering Mexico’s federal guard.
• Advancing intelligence and investigation capabilities.
• Increased collaboration between government departments.

Analyst Warnings and Statistical Concerns

But, public safety experts urged caution that relying on homicide numbers to paint a picture of pacification was problematic. This is notably true given the rise in other crimes such as people going missing.

“This would be excellent information if this was a reduction, but I think we must not just look at the murder data and conclude: ‘Alright, great,’” stated Cecilia Farfán-Méndez, an specialist on Mexico's cartels. “I would be guardedly positive.”

According to the policy analysis thinktank Mexico Evalúa, murders in total fell by more than 20% in the first 10 months of this year compared with the same timeframe last year. Yet, missing persons cases have gone up by 15% and in some regions have increased by up to 200%.

“Statistics on murders is not reliable for assessing the situation of violence,” said Armando Vargas, a security expert at Mexico Evalúa. “Firstly, we have police and prosecutors who lack the resources or the desire to properly identify and categorize bodies. Secondly, organised [criminals] … have the capability to mask violent acts through disappearances.”

Vargas noted that relying on month-to-month averages of daily homicides was additionally an issue because it might hide periods when there were notably elevated numbers of killings.

“Employing the per-day average makes high peaks of violent crime less visible,” he stated.

Arrests and Seizures as Measures of Success

An area where the administration can highlight the success of its security plan is on detentions and seizures. Almost 40,000 individuals were detained between October 2024 and this past November for major crimes, according to official data. More than 20,000 weapons were seized and 311 tons of narcotics confiscated.

“Donald Trump cannot claim President Sheinbaum of doing nothing, because the reality is she is doing a lot with these thousands of detentions, many thousands of confiscations, and all the operational degrading of criminal groups. It’s very in political terms advantageous,” said Vargas.

Persistent Unrest and Societal Frustration

Yet despite these efforts, Mexico remains grappling with severe violence, with multiple states in the grip of cartel-fueled violence. Recently there was a high-profile murder of a well-liked local official in the region of Michoacan, one of 10 mayors killed in the past 12 months.

A short time after, thousands of youth took to the streets in Mexico City and throughout the country to voice their anger at corruption and cartel violence.

“The federal government frames [data] in a way to build a picture of safety. Politically it’s extremely successful, from a social perspective it’s highly questionable,” the analyst remarked.