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At first, Donald Trump appeared to embrace a resolute stance concerning Ukraine. Following making warnings of "serious consequences" in August in case Vladimir Putin carried on blocking truce negotiations, Trump eventually imposed substantial penalties on Russia's biggest oil companies, Lukoil and Rosneft. This decision substantially impacted the Russian leader's ability to fund his military invasion in the region.

But, through his latest 28-point peace proposal for the conflict, that was created by US and Russian representatives without Ukrainian or European participation, he has seemingly returned to his Russia-friendly stance.

Favoring Military Action

Trump's proposal would in practice reward the Russian leader for attacking a sovereign nation while leaving Ukraine's democratic system in peril. Although bold statements that "The nation's independence will be upheld", much of the initiative in reality undermine that essential sovereignty. Seen as a Kremlin dream would probably be a Ukrainian nightmare.

Showing his corporate past, Trump persists to treat the war as a mere territorial dispute, like ceding Putin a portion of Ukrainian territory will please the ruler. However, Putin's military campaign is not merely about controlling a damaged region of industrial-devastated land in the Donbas region. Rather, it is about the nation's political system – and the Russian leader's obvious intention to eliminate it so it no longer acts as an attractive standard for the Russian people of the democratic leadership that his deepening authoritarian rule denies them.

Border Giveaways

Although maintaining in position the presently split Ukrainian provinces of these areas, the plan would compel Ukraine to abandon the entire this eastern territory. In addition to rewarding the Russian Federation with area that its forces have been failed to occupy in exceeding a ten years of warfare, this concession would make Ukraine's defenses dangerously compromised.

Donetsk is the location of the nation's much-vaunted "stronghold system", the fortified military defenses that represent a critical impediment to Russian advances. Trump would have Ukraine leave these defenses, giving Russian forces a clear route to Kyiv should he later decide to restart the war.

Armed Forces Reductions

Additionally, in a step that would facilitate future conflict easier for Russia, Trump would mandate Ukraine to cut the size of its armed forces from their existing 800,000 to 850,000 troops to a maximum of six hundred thousand. Importantly, Trump's plan sets no such constraints on the invading army.

In what appears as a gesture to Russia's campaign to portray Ukraine's legitimate leadership as extremists, Trump's proposal declares: "Every Nazi ideology and practices must be rejected and banned." Seemingly to emphasize this point, it insists that "Ukraine will hold elections in three months" of a truce. However, Trump sets no requirement that the Russian leader endanger his authoritarian rule by allowing votes in his own country.

Protection Guarantees

Certainly, the proposal has the Russian Federation commit not to "attack neighboring countries" and to "enshrine in legislation its stance of peaceful relations towards the EU and Ukraine". But given that the Russian leadership has broken comparable accords in the past – for example the Budapest accord, in which the Russian government promised to respect Ukraine's borders in exchange for surrendering its former Soviet nuclear weapons, and the 2014-2015 Minsk agreements, in which Moscow promised to a truce and a return of occupied areas in the Donbas to Ukrainian control – for what reason should we trust this commitment now?

That is why the Ukrainian government has been so adamant on external security guarantees. Although the proposal warns of a "immediate coordinated military response" if the Russian Federation restart its military campaign, and provides that "Ukraine will receive dependable security guarantees", the details include fuzzy to concerning. The initiative would not only prevent Ukraine alliance membership but also prevent member states from positioning military personnel on Ukraine's soil, thus preventing the peacekeeping contingent, presumptively led by the UK and France, on which Ukraine had been counting to prevent Putin from rebuilding his weakened troops, restocking, and resuming aggression.

International Response

Another side agreement according to sources would offer Ukraine with a alliance-like defense commitment, in which any later "major, intentional, and ongoing military assault" by Russia on Ukraine "will be treated as an attack endangering the tranquility of the allied countries." This indicates a military response. But in contrast to a powerful Ukraine's armed forces – Ukraine's best defense against future hostilities – the success of the parallel accord would depend on the willingness of Nato leaders, including Trump, to act with force to Putin's hostilities, something they have {not