The Astonishing Rich Vein of Form Drives Villa's Improbable Title Charge
Just 60 days ago when Morgan Rogers found himself on the Stadium of Light pitch, appearing bewildered as Unai Emery scolded him over not reading a penetrating pass. During that period, as Villa endured a six-game winless run, doubts remained whether Rogers' form were a sign or the reason of the side's broader struggles.
“As Rogers swept in his second… Emery ripped off his thick padded coat, spread his arms and roared.”
On Sunday, in contrast, the sideline response was entirely decidedly more positive. When Rogers drilled in his second strike to reclaim the lead for Villa, the boss tore off his jacket, spread his arms and bellowed. Villa continued to a tenth straight victory and having failed to win their initial half-dozen matches, now sit a mere three points off table-toppers Arsenal.
Are They Genuine Title Contenders?
That’s a rather hard query to resolve. Past precedent, a general sense of this institution, argues against it. Additionally, they've rarely been wholly dominant this season, despite the fact the wins have accumulated.
Per statistical analysis, on just two occasions have Villa had an expected goals figure more than 0.5 greater than the opposition. For a club that have just won ten consecutive victories, the Villans look weirdly vulnerable – however currently the fine lines are falling their way.
The Winning Formula
The prevailing tactic looks like to engage in a shootout with rivals and then rely on their star man to rescue them with some crisp finishes. This was the case away to Leeds, it occurred in London, and it happened when facing the Red Devils.
His opener originated from a brilliant finish, curled right inside the upright from the edge of the area. The follow-up goal was essentially a somewhat messier replica of goal number one capitalizing on a setup by his strike partner.
“Perhaps Rogers’ right foot is becoming like Arjen Robben’s left: just because you know he’s going to whip the ball into the top corner doesn’t mean you can stop him.”
Can It Last?
Reason suggests otherwise. In the recent win, the opposition had a greater number of attempts and more efforts on goal. Villa have secured their last eight victories by just one goal. They’ve conceded in all but one of those matches.
Regression to the mean could be the biggest rival Villa must confront over the coming weeks. Their key man, in all likelihood, cannot maintain thrashing the football into the top corner indefinitely.
A Case for Belief
Could it be an alternative path whereby, instead of results trending towards performances, the level of play rises to match the results. Vital cogs may yet return to peak condition.
- The main striker could start scoring again.
- Jadon Sancho could transform into the player he was at Borussia Dortmund.
- The injured centre-backs are due to return from injury, strengthening a sometimes shaky defence.
This could contain the seeds of a title challenge, however, it is improbable can continue to depend solely on one man.
Relishing the Unlikely
However, this is a surprise. Few believed the team would sit in the top three for the holidays. And certainly earlier this season, no one envisioned Rogers now would be spearheading a hunt for the title while looking like an essential Three Lions star.
This remarkable period is to be savoured precisely because it feels so unlikely. As the hero stood in front of the North End at the final whistle orchestrating the applause, he seemed to be loving the experience. As he deserves to. These runs of form are rare in football and should be relished.