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Within the considerable disarray following the United States attacks on Venezuela, the capture of leader Nicolás Maduro, and statements from Trump that the US will “control” the country and “reclaim the petroleum resources”, there is no doubt – this establishes a deeply alarming precedent.

A Dark Legacy and an Unprecedented Move

The United States possesses a dark record of meddling, military incursions, and control in the region, but the recent overnight operation witnessed its premier large-scale offensive on the continent of South America. “The preeminence of America in this region is now beyond dispute,” Mr Trump declared.

The decision to unilaterally attack another state and abduct its leader – only a few days after he stated a desire for negotiations – has still wider repercussions. This ought to concern everyone.

A Nation Left in Limbo

Venezuelans have endured a repressive, kleptocratic and incompetent regime under Mr Maduro, commonly thought to have rigged the previous presidential vote. They now face extreme instability in the best case. Mr Trump has suggested that Maduro's second-in-command, Delcy Rodríguez would comply with American demands, and brushed aside prominent critic and Nobel prize-winner María Corina Machado as a credible successor.

However, Ms Rodríguez, now the acting leader, has so far adopted a posture of resistance – and other parts of the leadership-stricken government are considerably more radical.

From Global Policeman to International Outlaw

A man who won power pledging to stop foreign wars now says he is “not afraid of boots on the ground”. Renaming the Department of Defense as the Department of War was a substantive signal. He does not see the world’s superpower as a guardian of order; he is turning it into a lawless actor.

He is convinced that the US’s might enables it to do as it wishes with minimal cost: consider the strikes on Nigeria, on Iran’s nuclear facilities. He promises that control of Venezuela's petroleum means this latest episode “will pay for itself”.

An Attack Without Legal Justification

George W. Bush invaded Iraq on a lie. But this unlawful assault came lacking any form of UN approval or the consent of the US Congress; key legislators received no advance notice and say they were actively misled in briefings. Mr Trump is not trying to twist international norms, but to shatter them.

Set aside the message this sends to Vladimir Putin, Xi Jinping and others, and ask where the US itself is heading. While the raid reportedly killed 40 Venezuelans, including civilians, no US personnel died. Mr Trump’s growing sense of invincibility will almost certainly fuel further adventurism.

Flimsy Justifications and Underlying Drivers

No one buys the excuse that this is about drugs. Venezuela is only a secondary pathway for cocaine; Mr Trump recently pardoned the former Honduran president Juan Orlando Hernández for narcotics and arms offenses. Mr Trump himself has been explicit that he is driven by the lure of oil as well as machismo, the ideology of some in his administration, and the desire for glory as his standing with the American public falters.

Tepid International Response and Waning Global Governance

The international response, especially in Europe, has – with honourable exceptions – been alarmingly quiet. That’s not because of Mr Maduro’s sins, but trepidation regarding Mr Trump’s wrath. The strong reaction from UN Secretary General António Guterres was notable, but this episode emphasizes the waning power of international bodies.

Mr Trump’s isolationist supporters at home could yet press him to redirect his gaze inward – but soaring healthcare premiums, economic unhappiness and distracting files make foreign conflicts more appealing.

We are not yet 12 months into his four-year term. The international community may regret it if they stay silent now, considering the potential next target.